Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Feihe Limited (6186.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.58 - $6.51$5.53
Multi-Stage$7.60 - $8.31$7.95
Blended Fair Value$6.74
Current Price$5.21
Upside29.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.78%0.00%0.290.280.240.370.300.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.83%19.73%-37.14%26.36%-0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.60%7.45%4.02%4.39%1.94%3.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,264.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,086.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,177.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,252.87783.04469.82
Cash Retained (M)1,177.521,177.521,177.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,252.87-783.04-469.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-75.34394.48707.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.58$5.53$6.51
Upside / Downside-12.05%6.16%24.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,264.336,201.686,139.676,078.276,017.495,957.316,136.03
Payout Ratio81.20%82.96%84.72%86.48%88.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,086.805,145.055,201.625,256.555,309.865,361.585,675.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,637.434,684.754,732.07
Year 2 PV (M)4,225.854,312.534,400.09
Year 3 PV (M)3,849.143,968.184,089.64
Year 4 PV (M)3,504.563,649.813,799.52
Year 5 PV (M)3,189.563,355.653,528.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,468.7452,044.6954,726.85
Equity Value (M)68,875.2872,015.6175,276.77
Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$7.60$7.95$8.31
Upside / Downside45.87%52.52%59.42%

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