Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dali Foods Group Company Limited (3799.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.67 - $7.00$5.77
Multi-Stage$9.49 - $10.42$9.95
Blended Fair Value$7.86
Current Price$3.14
Upside150.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-12.15%0.00%0.130.140.190.220.160.240.110.080.010.00
YoY Growth---11.85%-25.70%-11.50%38.66%-34.91%126.41%29.65%1,307.20%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.02%4.31%5.17%4.23%3.09%4.16%2.90%2.23%0.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,619.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,549.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,070.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,523.91952.44571.47
Cash Retained (M)2,070.212,070.212,070.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,523.91-952.44-571.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)546.301,117.761,498.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,694.1213,694.1213,694.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.67$5.77$7.00
Upside / Downside48.61%83.88%123.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,619.547,543.347,467.917,393.237,319.307,246.107,463.49
Payout Ratio72.83%76.26%79.70%83.13%86.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,549.335,752.875,951.796,146.156,336.036,521.496,903.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,304.955,359.095,413.22
Year 2 PV (M)5,061.065,164.875,269.74
Year 3 PV (M)4,819.414,968.455,120.54
Year 4 PV (M)4,581.474,771.354,967.07
Year 5 PV (M)4,348.424,574.854,810.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,871.38111,384.35117,124.62
Equity Value (M)129,986.69136,222.96142,705.81
Shares Outstanding (M)13,694.1213,694.1213,694.12
Fair Value$9.49$9.95$10.42
Upside / Downside202.30%216.80%231.88%

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