Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CENTRAL REIT Investment Corporation (3488.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$272,751.46 - $624,875.51$397,776.75
Multi-Stage$285,390.81 - $312,041.87$298,470.47
Blended Fair Value$348,123.61
Current Price$119,500.00
Upside191.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS5.40%0.00%7,054.486,465.027,283.616,077.905,504.375,422.885,550.290.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.12%-11.24%19.84%10.42%1.50%-2.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.90%5.57%6.27%4.82%4.74%6.28%4.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,390.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,444.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)946.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)678.13423.83254.30
Cash Retained (M)946.61946.61946.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-678.13-423.83-254.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.49522.78692.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.250.250.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,075.452,094.062,773.14
LTM Dividend per Share9,789.779,789.779,789.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,075.452,094.062,773.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,865.2111,883.8312,562.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Fair Value$272,751.46$397,776.75$624,875.51
Upside / Downside128.24%232.87%422.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,390.633,539.873,695.683,858.344,028.174,205.474,331.64
Payout Ratio72.08%75.67%79.25%82.83%86.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,444.022,678.452,928.783,195.973,481.003,784.924,006.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Year 1 PV (M)2,467.242,491.102,514.96
Year 2 PV (M)2,485.102,533.402,582.16
Year 3 PV (M)2,497.972,571.152,645.74
Year 4 PV (M)2,506.212,604.572,705.81
Year 5 PV (M)2,510.152,633.902,762.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,781.1561,679.0464,690.10
Equity Value (M)71,247.8274,513.1577,901.25
Shares Outstanding (M)0.250.250.25
Fair Value$285,390.81$298,470.47$312,041.87
Upside / Downside138.82%149.77%161.12%

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