Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Overseas Property Holdings Limited (2669.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.17 - $42.20$27.57
Multi-Stage$14.03 - $15.31$14.66
Blended Fair Value$21.11
Current Price$5.48
Upside285.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.90%0.00%0.160.140.100.070.050.040.040.030.020.00
YoY Growth--13.79%40.41%35.04%44.00%19.05%20.00%34.62%13.04%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.03%2.33%1.20%0.87%1.24%0.86%1.53%1.20%1.73%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,210.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)959.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,250.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)642.04401.28240.77
Cash Retained (M)2,250.942,250.942,250.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-642.04-401.28-240.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,608.901,849.672,010.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,285.043,285.043,285.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.17$27.57$42.20
Upside / Downside249.78%403.13%670.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,210.213,418.873,641.103,877.774,129.824,398.264,530.21
Payout Ratio29.88%41.91%53.93%65.95%77.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)959.261,432.691,963.612,557.493,220.283,958.434,190.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,292.531,304.781,317.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,598.211,628.651,659.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,877.941,931.851,986.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,133.302,215.342,299.72
Year 5 PV (M)2,365.762,480.022,598.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,814.2738,592.4140,438.61
Equity Value (M)46,082.0048,153.0550,300.19
Shares Outstanding (M)3,285.043,285.043,285.04
Fair Value$14.03$14.66$15.31
Upside / Downside155.98%167.49%179.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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