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Definitive Analysis

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Genertec Universal Medical Group Company Limited (2666.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$361.33 - $425.71$398.95
Multi-Stage$94.70 - $103.80$99.17
Blended Fair Value$249.06
Current Price$5.11
Upside4,773.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.22%22.73%0.300.290.290.240.220.200.170.130.090.00
YoY Growth--2.11%1.99%20.18%6.36%11.52%20.91%32.36%35.00%2,180.77%-89.40%
Dividend Yield--6.40%7.30%6.84%5.19%4.60%3.81%3.23%1.96%1.62%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,337.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,208.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,128.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)867.43542.14325.28
Cash Retained (M)3,128.533,128.533,128.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-867.43-542.14-325.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,261.102,586.392,803.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,026.142,026.142,026.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.281.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.281.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.711.871.98
WACC / Discount Rate5.34%5.34%5.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$361.33$398.95$425.71
Upside / Downside6,971.07%7,707.29%8,230.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,337.134,619.054,919.285,239.045,579.575,942.256,120.51
Payout Ratio27.87%40.29%52.72%65.15%77.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,208.611,861.162,593.443,413.054,328.265,348.025,661.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.34%5.34%5.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,750.171,766.761,783.35
Year 2 PV (M)2,293.352,337.032,381.13
Year 3 PV (M)2,838.152,919.623,002.64
Year 4 PV (M)3,384.563,514.723,648.60
Year 5 PV (M)3,932.604,122.554,319.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)177,684.69186,266.93195,177.63
Equity Value (M)191,883.53200,927.61210,313.11
Shares Outstanding (M)2,026.142,026.142,026.14
Fair Value$94.70$99.17$103.80
Upside / Downside1,753.31%1,840.66%1,931.31%

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