Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SINOPEC Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd. (2386.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$180.69 - $213.01$199.57
Multi-Stage$121.42 - $133.60$127.39
Blended Fair Value$163.48
Current Price$5.45
Upside2,899.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.22%1.36%0.360.320.330.270.310.230.250.140.260.30
YoY Growth--12.47%-3.09%23.32%-14.12%34.62%-4.92%81.51%-47.28%-15.28%-4.41%
Dividend Yield--5.73%8.66%10.97%8.59%11.17%5.61%4.35%2.22%4.43%5.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,867.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,015.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,852.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)973.52608.45365.07
Cash Retained (M)1,852.021,852.021,852.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-973.52-608.45-365.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)878.501,243.571,486.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,405.054,405.054,405.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.280.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.280.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate0.10%0.10%0.10%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$180.69$199.57$213.01
Upside / Downside3,215.45%3,561.75%3,808.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,867.625,023.405,184.165,350.075,521.295,697.995,868.93
Payout Ratio61.95%67.56%73.17%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,015.603,393.903,793.324,214.844,659.445,128.195,428.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.10%0.10%0.10%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)3,357.513,390.363,423.21
Year 2 PV (M)3,712.413,785.413,859.13
Year 3 PV (M)4,080.704,201.664,324.98
Year 4 PV (M)4,462.784,640.034,822.50
Year 5 PV (M)4,859.075,101.495,353.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)514,386.65540,049.59566,726.72
Equity Value (M)534,859.11561,168.53588,510.03
Shares Outstanding (M)4,405.054,405.054,405.05
Fair Value$121.42$127.39$133.60
Upside / Downside2,127.88%2,237.47%2,351.36%

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