Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (2313.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$229.68 - $874.51$387.34
Multi-Stage$148.74 - $162.37$155.43
Blended Fair Value$271.38
Current Price$50.90
Upside433.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.81%14.47%2.121.641.371.811.721.601.371.650.830.73
YoY Growth--29.62%19.14%-24.08%5.23%7.47%16.78%-17.16%98.05%13.63%33.79%
Dividend Yield--3.64%2.29%1.77%1.48%1.34%1.57%1.76%2.59%1.90%1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,847.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,284.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,563.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,369.571,480.98888.59
Cash Retained (M)5,563.265,563.265,563.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,369.57-1,480.98-888.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,193.694,082.274,674.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.221,503.221,503.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.723.11
LTM Dividend per Share4.184.184.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.723.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.316.907.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$229.68$387.34$874.51
Upside / Downside351.25%660.98%1,618.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,847.8512,617.9613,438.1314,311.6115,241.8616,232.5816,719.56
Payout Ratio53.04%60.44%67.83%75.22%82.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,284.607,625.719,114.6110,764.8612,591.1214,609.3215,465.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,968.987,035.037,101.09
Year 2 PV (M)7,612.307,757.297,903.65
Year 3 PV (M)8,216.278,452.138,692.46
Year 4 PV (M)8,782.539,120.289,467.68
Year 5 PV (M)9,312.679,762.4710,229.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)182,693.37191,517.52200,679.40
Equity Value (M)223,586.11233,644.74244,073.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.221,503.221,503.22
Fair Value$148.74$155.43$162.37
Upside / Downside192.22%205.36%218.99%

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