Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MGM China Holdings Limited (2282.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.96 - $455.23$426.59
Multi-Stage$84.31 - $92.37$88.26
Blended Fair Value$257.43
Current Price$12.88
Upside1,898.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.48%-7.70%0.700.000.000.000.080.130.160.270.211.21
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.16%-20.50%-41.66%30.19%-82.58%-21.99%
Dividend Yield--7.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.62%1.00%1.22%1.20%1.31%12.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,804.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,934.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,869.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,760.811,100.51660.30
Cash Retained (M)3,869.543,869.543,869.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,760.81-1,100.51-660.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,108.732,769.033,209.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,815.203,815.203,815.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.84
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.75%5.75%5.75%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Fair Value$172.96$426.59$455.23
Upside / Downside1,242.86%3,212.02%3,434.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,804.069,300.109,824.0910,377.6110,962.3111,579.9511,927.35
Payout Ratio56.05%62.84%69.63%76.42%83.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,934.525,844.056,840.417,930.499,121.7010,421.9611,032.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.75%5.75%5.75%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)5,473.925,526.245,578.55
Year 2 PV (M)6,001.386,116.646,232.99
Year 3 PV (M)6,517.086,705.736,897.98
Year 4 PV (M)7,021.237,293.517,573.64
Year 5 PV (M)7,514.007,879.998,260.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)289,138.72303,221.99317,848.76
Equity Value (M)321,666.32336,744.08352,392.01
Shares Outstanding (M)3,815.203,815.203,815.20
Fair Value$84.31$88.26$92.37
Upside / Downside554.59%585.28%617.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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