Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. (1606.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.42 - $143.05$134.06
Multi-Stage$47.55 - $52.15$49.81
Blended Fair Value$91.94
Current Price$1.59
Upside5,682.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.00%0.00%0.100.070.100.070.100.090.080.060.000.01
YoY Growth--38.81%-28.72%43.83%-25.84%9.83%15.89%38.56%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.90%5.91%11.17%7.56%10.13%6.66%4.37%3.68%0.00%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,093.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,249.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,844.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,818.781,136.74682.04
Cash Retained (M)6,844.206,844.206,844.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,818.78-1,136.74-682.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,025.425,707.466,162.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,642.3812,642.3812,642.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.42$134.06$143.05
Upside / Downside7,536.56%8,331.65%8,897.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,093.929,685.0210,314.5510,984.9911,699.0212,459.4612,833.24
Payout Ratio24.74%37.79%50.84%63.90%76.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,249.723,660.065,244.257,018.919,002.1311,213.5111,870.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,466.763,499.623,532.48
Year 2 PV (M)4,704.944,794.564,885.02
Year 3 PV (M)5,964.546,135.766,310.23
Year 4 PV (M)7,245.837,524.487,811.10
Year 5 PV (M)8,549.098,962.029,390.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)571,181.36598,769.63627,413.77
Equity Value (M)601,112.53629,686.07659,343.35
Shares Outstanding (M)12,642.3812,642.3812,642.38
Fair Value$47.55$49.81$52.15
Upside / Downside2,890.40%3,032.55%3,180.09%

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