Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited (1066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.90 - $18.67$14.26
Multi-Stage$12.14 - $13.27$12.69
Blended Fair Value$13.48
Current Price$5.57
Upside141.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.12%12.11%0.190.160.160.140.150.160.050.120.060.07
YoY Growth--18.83%-1.21%13.52%-6.85%-1.42%226.49%-61.48%124.00%-23.77%19.35%
Dividend Yield--4.44%2.40%1.44%1.81%1.04%2.70%0.84%2.30%1.19%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,879.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,603.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,275.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)775.82484.89290.93
Cash Retained (M)2,275.902,275.902,275.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-775.82-484.89-290.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,500.081,791.011,984.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$10.90$14.26$18.67
Upside / Downside95.67%156.03%235.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,879.124,025.604,177.624,335.374,499.084,668.974,809.04
Payout Ratio41.33%51.06%60.80%70.53%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,603.222,055.622,539.893,057.813,611.224,202.074,448.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)1,864.511,882.651,900.79
Year 2 PV (M)2,089.582,130.442,171.69
Year 3 PV (M)2,281.792,349.042,417.60
Year 4 PV (M)2,444.222,540.742,640.10
Year 5 PV (M)2,579.702,707.672,840.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,134.7946,324.1148,599.47
Equity Value (M)55,394.5757,934.6560,570.31
Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
Fair Value$12.14$12.69$13.27
Upside / Downside117.89%127.88%138.25%

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