Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ConocoPhillips (0QZA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$202.90 - $738.78$338.52
Multi-Stage$134.71 - $147.15$140.82
Blended Fair Value$239.67
Current Price$94.59
Upside153.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.44%0.34%2.944.504.621.901.481.211.101.051.012.95
YoY Growth---34.69%-2.50%142.73%28.84%22.07%10.05%4.44%4.15%-65.80%3.94%
Dividend Yield--2.80%3.50%4.65%1.90%2.79%3.93%1.62%1.77%2.03%7.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,830.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,854.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,766.001,103.75662.25
Cash Retained (M)4,976.004,976.004,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,766.00-1,103.75-662.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,210.003,872.254,313.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.236.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Fair Value$202.90$338.52$738.78
Upside / Downside114.50%257.88%681.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,830.009,390.009,985.5210,618.8011,292.2512,008.4112,368.66
Payout Ratio43.65%52.92%62.19%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,854.004,968.946,209.797,588.069,116.1610,807.5711,441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)4,545.034,588.184,631.32
Year 2 PV (M)5,195.455,294.565,394.61
Year 3 PV (M)5,806.985,973.936,144.05
Year 4 PV (M)6,381.236,627.016,879.82
Year 5 PV (M)6,919.817,254.557,602.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)138,246.82144,934.40151,878.31
Equity Value (M)167,095.32174,672.62182,530.22
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
Fair Value$134.71$140.82$147.15
Upside / Downside42.42%48.87%55.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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