Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Aflac Incorporated (0H68.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.03 - $216.32$157.01
Multi-Stage$120.70 - $132.11$126.30
Blended Fair Value$141.65
Current Price$111.70
Upside26.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.11%5.21%1.991.771.791.571.411.411.451.211.211.20
YoY Growth--12.53%-1.33%14.50%11.18%-0.26%-2.77%19.97%0.46%0.30%0.31%
Dividend Yield--1.79%2.08%2.78%2.43%2.75%4.13%2.91%2.77%3.33%3.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,169.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,173.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,996.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)833.80521.13312.68
Cash Retained (M)2,996.002,996.002,996.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-833.80-521.13-312.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,162.202,474.882,683.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)545.58545.58545.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.964.544.92
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.964.544.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.116.697.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Fair Value$116.03$157.01$216.32
Upside / Downside3.88%40.57%93.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,169.004,344.604,527.594,718.294,917.035,124.135,277.85
Payout Ratio28.14%40.51%52.88%65.25%77.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,173.001,759.952,394.273,078.903,816.954,611.724,882.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Year 1 PV (M)1,604.301,619.841,635.38
Year 2 PV (M)1,989.482,028.222,067.33
Year 3 PV (M)2,332.102,400.542,470.31
Year 4 PV (M)2,635.432,739.062,845.72
Year 5 PV (M)2,902.563,045.923,194.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,386.1357,072.3659,863.70
Equity Value (M)65,850.0068,905.9572,077.34
Shares Outstanding (M)545.58545.58545.58
Fair Value$120.70$126.30$132.11
Upside / Downside8.05%13.07%18.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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