Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited (0868.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.63 - $128.67$71.07
Multi-Stage$31.15 - $34.02$32.56
Blended Fair Value$51.82
Current Price$6.88
Upside653.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.86%8.27%0.470.220.861.220.440.490.500.400.310.14
YoY Growth--113.80%-74.44%-29.48%173.78%-9.20%-1.87%23.42%30.29%117.25%-32.62%
Dividend Yield--5.94%2.50%5.90%6.24%2.05%4.74%5.76%3.73%4.89%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,912.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,929.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,982.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,582.47989.04593.43
Cash Retained (M)4,982.564,982.564,982.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,582.47-989.04-593.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,400.093,993.514,389.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,260.124,260.124,260.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.941.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.941.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.491.631.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.63$71.07$128.67
Upside / Downside563.25%933.00%1,770.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,912.368,426.668,974.399,557.7310,178.9810,840.6111,165.83
Payout Ratio37.03%47.62%58.22%68.81%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,929.804,012.995,224.616,576.798,082.689,756.5510,328.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,649.243,683.833,718.42
Year 2 PV (M)4,320.394,402.684,485.74
Year 3 PV (M)4,945.585,087.555,232.21
Year 4 PV (M)5,527.045,739.595,958.22
Year 5 PV (M)6,066.916,359.946,664.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,208.57113,435.09118,861.63
Equity Value (M)132,717.72138,708.67144,920.41
Shares Outstanding (M)4,260.124,260.124,260.12
Fair Value$31.15$32.56$34.02
Upside / Downside352.81%373.25%394.45%

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