Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HDC I-Controls Co., Ltd. (039570.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,379.71 - $58,325.95$32,971.98
Multi-Stage$14,928.52 - $16,289.16$15,596.58
Blended Fair Value$24,284.28
Current Price$8,350.00
Upside190.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.10%24.77%428.47428.47447.27253.46242.00242.00172.86103.7186.4346.88
YoY Growth--0.00%-4.20%76.47%4.74%0.00%40.00%66.67%20.00%84.37%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.33%5.08%5.77%2.47%2.38%3.54%1.70%0.80%0.64%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,228.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,362.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,866.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,245.752,653.591,592.15
Cash Retained (M)10,866.6110,866.6110,866.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,245.75-2,653.59-1,592.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,620.868,213.029,274.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.8123.8123.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share278.12345.00389.58
LTM Dividend per Share435.27435.27435.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share278.12345.00389.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend713.39780.27824.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21,379.71$32,971.98$58,325.95
Upside / Downside156.04%294.87%598.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,228.7322,608.6024,078.1625,643.2427,310.0529,085.2029,957.76
Payout Ratio48.81%57.05%65.29%73.52%81.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,362.1312,898.0815,719.9318,854.1222,329.3426,176.6827,710.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,719.8111,830.9011,941.99
Year 2 PV (M)12,979.0113,226.2213,475.77
Year 3 PV (M)14,144.6714,550.7114,964.45
Year 4 PV (M)15,221.5215,806.9016,409.00
Year 5 PV (M)16,214.0816,997.2217,810.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)285,109.29298,880.17313,178.10
Equity Value (M)355,388.37371,292.12387,779.65
Shares Outstanding (M)23.8123.8123.81
Fair Value$14,928.52$15,596.58$16,289.16
Upside / Downside78.78%86.79%95.08%

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