Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (002839.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.45 - $78.08$38.25
Multi-Stage$15.48 - $16.90$16.18
Blended Fair Value$27.21
Current Price$4.30
Upside532.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.80%71.83%0.390.360.300.220.170.120.080.080.090.09
YoY Growth--7.74%21.48%34.95%28.65%38.63%54.89%-3.56%-5.54%-6.94%5,326.39%
Dividend Yield--9.13%8.94%6.62%4.22%3.68%2.69%1.34%1.17%0.36%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)866.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,098.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392.93245.58147.35
Cash Retained (M)1,098.481,098.481,098.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-392.93-245.58-147.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)705.55852.90951.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,284.662,284.662,284.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.45$38.25$78.08
Upside / Downside445.31%789.46%1,715.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964.632,092.332,228.332,373.172,527.432,691.712,772.46
Payout Ratio44.09%53.27%62.45%71.63%80.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)866.151,114.581,391.641,700.022,042.602,422.542,564.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,016.721,026.361,036.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,158.011,180.071,202.33
Year 3 PV (M)1,290.421,327.461,365.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,414.341,468.731,524.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,530.141,604.051,680.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,950.3130,348.6231,800.45
Equity Value (M)35,359.9436,955.2838,609.44
Shares Outstanding (M)2,284.662,284.662,284.66
Fair Value$15.48$16.18$16.90
Upside / Downside259.93%276.17%293.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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