Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Universal Corporation (UVV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.94 - $145.99$102.27
Multi-Stage$78.18 - $85.44$81.74
Blended Fair Value$92.00
Current Price$55.87
Upside64.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.12%5.35%3.173.123.083.042.993.002.782.171.981.88
YoY Growth--1.64%1.31%1.25%1.67%-0.25%7.85%27.76%9.78%5.15%0.11%
Dividend Yield--5.44%6.54%6.16%5.02%5.25%7.05%4.52%3.29%3.06%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.3313.968.37
Cash Retained (M)41.7141.7141.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.33-13.96-8.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.3827.7533.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.1525.1525.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.771.101.33
LTM Dividend per Share2.782.782.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.771.101.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.884.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$73.94$102.27$145.99
Upside / Downside32.35%83.04%161.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.64116.50121.56126.84132.35138.11142.25
Payout Ratio62.64%68.11%73.59%79.06%84.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.9479.3589.45100.28111.88124.29131.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)72.5673.2673.97
Year 2 PV (M)74.8076.2577.72
Year 3 PV (M)76.6878.9281.22
Year 4 PV (M)78.2381.3084.46
Year 5 PV (M)79.4783.4087.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,584.871,663.041,744.27
Equity Value (M)1,966.602,056.182,149.10
Shares Outstanding (M)25.1525.1525.15
Fair Value$78.18$81.74$85.44
Upside / Downside39.94%46.31%52.92%

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