Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$234.01 - $703.34$371.23
Multi-Stage$153.99 - $168.34$161.03
Blended Fair Value$266.13
Current Price$118.35
Upside124.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.35%6.43%1.161.121.081.000.910.890.880.780.740.69
YoY Growth--3.88%3.08%7.91%10.73%1.42%1.99%12.34%5.79%6.68%11.13%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.32%1.87%1.03%0.98%1.93%1.34%1.08%0.98%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)492.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4175.8845.53
Cash Retained (M)492.51492.51492.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.41-75.88-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)371.10416.63446.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.5666.5666.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.586.266.72
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.586.266.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.307.988.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$234.01$371.23$703.34
Upside / Downside97.72%213.67%494.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.04646.50688.52733.27780.94831.70856.65
Payout Ratio18.87%33.09%47.32%61.55%75.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.53213.95325.81451.31591.74748.53792.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.82196.66198.51
Year 2 PV (M)270.14275.29280.48
Year 3 PV (M)340.74350.52360.49
Year 4 PV (M)406.82422.46438.55
Year 5 PV (M)468.59491.22514.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,568.278,982.129,411.81
Equity Value (M)10,249.3710,718.2811,204.56
Shares Outstanding (M)66.5666.5666.56
Fair Value$153.99$161.03$168.34
Upside / Downside30.11%36.06%42.24%

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