Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.86 - $58.20$40.23
Multi-Stage$27.09 - $29.57$28.31
Blended Fair Value$34.27
Current Price$10.79
Upside217.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%6.12%0.570.470.330.180.200.280.100.000.000.24
YoY Growth--21.00%44.19%81.47%-8.21%-28.21%187.88%8,150.00%0.00%-99.52%-23.58%
Dividend Yield--5.32%4.34%3.91%3.16%4.38%4.71%1.29%0.01%0.02%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,878.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,068.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)575.60359.75215.85
Cash Retained (M)1,068.001,068.001,068.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-575.60-359.75-215.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)492.40708.25852.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$28.86$40.23$58.20
Upside / Downside167.46%272.83%439.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,878.003,025.433,180.423,343.353,514.623,694.663,805.50
Payout Ratio62.89%68.31%73.73%79.16%84.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,810.002,066.762,345.072,646.472,972.603,325.203,520.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,879.201,897.251,915.29
Year 2 PV (M)1,938.751,976.172,013.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,989.382,047.252,106.23
Year 4 PV (M)2,031.752,110.932,192.41
Year 5 PV (M)2,066.502,167.662,272.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,862.7138,667.1940,541.66
Equity Value (M)46,768.2948,866.4551,042.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
Fair Value$27.09$28.31$29.57
Upside / Downside151.07%162.33%174.01%

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