Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fleury Michon S.A. (ALFLE.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$183.98 - $311.61$239.62
Multi-Stage$398.46 - $438.92$418.30
Blended Fair Value$328.96
Current Price$25.50
Upside1,190.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.97%1.08%1.321.231.221.020.831.261.161.151.221.22
YoY Growth--8.09%0.48%19.24%23.90%-34.59%9.19%0.36%-5.47%0.00%2.37%
Dividend Yield--4.82%6.16%6.66%4.37%2.99%3.99%2.99%2.46%1.89%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.467.794.67
Cash Retained (M)51.9151.9151.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.46-7.79-4.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4444.1247.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
LTM Dividend per Share2.552.552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.2013.3514.11
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$183.98$239.62$311.61
Upside / Downside621.47%839.70%1,121.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.3262.5362.7462.9463.1563.3665.26
Payout Ratio16.71%31.37%46.03%60.69%75.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4219.6228.8838.2047.5857.0260.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)18.3418.5218.71
Year 2 PV (M)25.2325.7426.26
Year 3 PV (M)31.1932.1533.12
Year 4 PV (M)36.3237.8039.33
Year 5 PV (M)40.6942.7844.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,476.461,552.291,631.21
Equity Value (M)1,628.221,709.281,793.57
Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
Fair Value$398.46$418.30$438.92
Upside / Downside1,462.59%1,540.38%1,621.27%

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