Definitive Analysis
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Univanich Palm Oil Public Company Limited (UVAN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.47 - $313.00$293.32
Multi-Stage$49.73 - $54.39$52.02
Blended Fair Value$172.67
Current Price$9.65
Upside1,689.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.27%4.45%0.840.990.700.470.270.400.500.400.400.47
YoY Growth---15.00%42.86%48.94%74.07%-32.50%-20.00%25.00%0.00%-14.89%-14.55%
Dividend Yield--9.22%11.75%9.52%6.53%4.92%10.79%8.87%4.57%5.59%6.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,489.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)940.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)298.00186.25111.75
Cash Retained (M)549.98549.98549.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-298.00-186.25-111.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)251.99363.74438.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)946.72946.72946.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.380.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.380.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$164.47$293.32$313.00
Upside / Downside1,604.33%2,939.63%3,143.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,489.981,586.831,689.981,799.821,916.812,041.412,102.65
Payout Ratio63.09%68.47%73.85%79.24%84.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)940.001,086.511,248.091,426.091,621.961,837.271,944.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,012.451,022.041,031.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,083.741,104.381,125.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,153.891,187.011,220.76
Year 4 PV (M)1,222.911,269.941,318.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,290.811,353.161,417.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,312.4143,307.8145,379.58
Equity Value (M)47,076.2049,244.3451,493.41
Shares Outstanding (M)946.72946.72946.72
Fair Value$49.73$52.02$54.39
Upside / Downside415.29%439.02%463.64%

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