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S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.30 - $286.45$164.40
Multi-Stage$73.78 - $80.59$77.12
Blended Fair Value$120.76
Current Price$37.59
Upside221.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.41%9.70%1.321.291.221.151.140.970.890.740.690.63
YoY Growth--2.55%5.87%5.93%0.86%17.64%8.17%20.90%6.66%9.38%21.20%
Dividend Yield--3.56%4.04%3.87%3.88%3.40%3.54%2.23%1.85%2.01%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.1421.9613.18
Cash Retained (M)123.45123.45123.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.14-21.96-13.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.30101.48110.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.6038.6038.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.292.632.86
LTM Dividend per Share1.351.351.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.292.632.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.643.984.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$107.30$164.40$286.45
Upside / Downside185.46%337.34%662.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.71187.13199.29212.25226.05240.74247.96
Payout Ratio29.75%41.80%53.85%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.2778.21107.31139.87176.20216.66229.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)71.0371.7072.38
Year 2 PV (M)88.5190.1991.89
Year 3 PV (M)104.76107.77110.83
Year 4 PV (M)119.85124.46129.20
Year 5 PV (M)133.84140.30147.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,330.282,442.842,559.70
Equity Value (M)2,848.262,977.263,111.01
Shares Outstanding (M)38.6038.6038.60
Fair Value$73.78$77.12$80.59
Upside / Downside96.28%105.16%114.38%

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