Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor (SMRSX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - BondsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.06 - $1.44$1.25
Multi-Stage$2.25 - $2.47$2.36
Blended Fair Value$1.81
Current Price$9.98
Upside-81.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%-4.32%0.220.260.290.270.250.000.290.320.320.33
YoY Growth---17.16%-11.65%10.74%7.70%0.00%-100.00%-8.77%-1.78%-3.20%-0.40%
Dividend Yield--2.16%2.57%2.82%2.51%2.41%0.00%3.10%3.39%3.46%3.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.651.661.00
Cash Retained (M)0.160.160.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.65-1.66-1.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.50-1.50-0.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.8660.8660.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-6.32%-5.32%-4.32%
Fair Value$1.06$1.25$1.44
Upside / Downside-89.38%-87.45%-85.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2712.5611.8911.2610.6610.0910.40
Payout Ratio98.81%97.05%95.28%93.52%91.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1112.1911.3310.539.789.089.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-6.32%-5.32%-4.32%
Year 1 PV (M)11.0611.1811.29
Year 2 PV (M)9.329.529.72
Year 3 PV (M)7.868.118.37
Year 4 PV (M)6.626.917.20
Year 5 PV (M)5.575.886.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)96.76102.04107.54
Equity Value (M)137.19143.63150.33
Shares Outstanding (M)60.8660.8660.86
Fair Value$2.25$2.36$2.47
Upside / Downside-77.41%-76.35%-75.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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