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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.30 - $66.27$47.06
Multi-Stage$51.48 - $56.39$53.89
Blended Fair Value$50.47
Current Price$11.82
Upside327.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.73%16.68%2.843.055.852.030.210.290.100.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.83%-47.83%188.28%856.69%-27.17%200.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--21.81%20.50%63.04%14.52%2.48%5.40%0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,955.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,074.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,881.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,791.001,744.381,046.63
Cash Retained (M)1,881.001,881.001,881.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,791.00-1,744.38-1,046.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-910.00136.63834.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,444.376,444.376,444.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.020.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.871.871.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.020.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$34.30$47.06$66.27
Upside / Downside190.20%298.11%460.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,955.0014,318.2114,690.8715,073.2415,465.5515,868.0716,344.12
Payout Ratio86.52%87.22%87.91%88.61%89.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,074.0012,487.8812,915.1213,356.1513,811.3814,281.2715,118.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)11,585.9611,699.9911,814.02
Year 2 PV (M)11,116.9411,336.8511,558.91
Year 3 PV (M)10,666.2410,984.2911,308.60
Year 4 PV (M)10,233.1810,642.0411,063.02
Year 5 PV (M)9,817.1010,309.8210,822.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)278,314.49292,282.98306,806.77
Equity Value (M)331,733.92347,255.96363,373.45
Shares Outstanding (M)6,444.376,444.376,444.37
Fair Value$51.48$53.89$56.39
Upside / Downside335.50%355.88%377.04%

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