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AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 (MITN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - MortgageSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.71 - $16.87$14.23
Multi-Stage$20.27 - $22.19$21.21
Blended Fair Value$17.72
Current Price$25.36
Upside-30.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.241.191.260.991.180.002.292.212.230.00
YoY Growth--3.94%-5.25%27.49%-16.04%0.00%-100.00%3.48%-0.55%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.95%4.72%5.01%3.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.936.213.72
Cash Retained (M)11.9711.9711.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.93-6.21-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.045.768.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.190.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.190.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.71$14.23$16.87
Upside / Downside-53.81%-43.90%-33.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6749.1748.6848.1947.7147.2348.65
Payout Ratio75.90%78.72%81.54%84.36%87.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.7038.7139.6940.6541.5942.5145.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.1335.4835.84
Year 2 PV (M)32.6933.3634.04
Year 3 PV (M)30.3831.3232.28
Year 4 PV (M)28.2129.3830.58
Year 5 PV (M)26.1627.5328.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)455.54479.27503.96
Equity Value (M)608.11636.34665.65
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
Fair Value$20.27$21.21$22.19
Upside / Downside-20.07%-16.36%-12.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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