Definitive Analysis
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Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.54 - $197.75$113.99
Multi-Stage$51.02 - $55.74$53.34
Blended Fair Value$83.66
Current Price$31.04
Upside169.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.46%17.37%0.720.670.610.520.430.380.290.210.160.15
YoY Growth--8.56%9.65%17.26%19.34%12.89%34.67%35.21%34.37%3.69%4.03%
Dividend Yield--2.56%3.17%2.70%2.21%2.29%2.45%1.47%1.29%0.98%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.442.781.67
Cash Retained (M)16.8416.8416.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.44-2.78-1.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.4014.0715.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.772.012.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.772.012.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.782.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.54$113.99$197.75
Upside / Downside140.16%267.22%537.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.2123.6625.1926.8328.5830.4331.35
Payout Ratio24.18%37.34%50.51%63.67%76.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.378.8312.7317.0821.9627.3929.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.028.108.17
Year 2 PV (M)10.4910.6910.89
Year 3 PV (M)12.7913.1613.53
Year 4 PV (M)14.9215.5016.09
Year 5 PV (M)16.9117.7218.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)293.48307.65322.37
Equity Value (M)356.61372.82389.63
Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
Fair Value$51.02$53.34$55.74
Upside / Downside64.36%71.83%79.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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