Definitive Analysis
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First Savings Financial Group, Inc. (FSFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.15 - $159.56$91.98
Multi-Stage$41.15 - $44.97$43.03
Blended Fair Value$67.50
Current Price$31.43
Upside114.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.44%16.05%0.580.540.640.240.230.210.190.180.160.14
YoY Growth--6.80%-15.69%167.00%5.97%8.02%9.61%9.28%10.72%11.56%8.86%
Dividend Yield--1.85%2.05%3.84%1.21%0.86%0.97%0.86%1.02%0.84%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.582.241.34
Cash Retained (M)13.6113.6113.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.58-2.24-1.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.0311.3712.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.986.986.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.441.631.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.441.631.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.15$91.98$159.56
Upside / Downside91.38%192.64%407.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17.8919.0520.2921.6123.0124.5125.25
Payout Ratio23.93%37.14%50.36%63.57%76.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.287.0810.2213.7417.6722.0623.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.436.496.55
Year 2 PV (M)8.428.598.75
Year 3 PV (M)10.2810.5810.88
Year 4 PV (M)12.0112.4712.95
Year 5 PV (M)13.6214.2714.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)236.36247.78259.63
Equity Value (M)287.13300.18313.71
Shares Outstanding (M)6.986.986.98
Fair Value$41.15$43.03$44.97
Upside / Downside30.94%36.89%43.07%

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