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PT Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$363.83 - $636.72$480.21
Multi-Stage$663.93 - $728.42$695.56
Blended Fair Value$587.89
Current Price$408.00
Upside44.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.36%0.00%22.1222.3618.3038.5611.4919.690.0019.750.000.00
YoY Growth---1.09%22.22%-52.55%235.71%-41.67%199,999,900.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%4.07%3.08%4.94%1.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,693,711.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,337,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)355,918.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)338,742.20211,713.88127,028.33
Cash Retained (M)355,918.00355,918.00355,918.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-338,742.20-211,713.88-127,028.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,175.80144,204.13228,889.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60,948.3060,948.3060,948.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.282.373.76
LTM Dividend per Share21.9521.9521.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.282.373.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.2324.3225.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.36%1.36%2.36%
Fair Value$363.83$480.21$636.72
Upside / Downside-10.83%17.70%56.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,693,711.001,716,668.031,739,936.231,763,519.811,787,423.061,811,650.291,865,999.80
Payout Ratio78.99%81.19%83.39%85.59%87.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,337,793.001,393,740.901,450,959.691,509,473.551,569,307.061,630,485.261,726,049.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.36%1.36%2.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,295,916.001,308,829.261,321,742.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,254,425.761,279,549.971,304,923.30
Year 3 PV (M)1,213,416.591,250,052.811,287,419.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,172,970.681,220,426.801,269,308.54
Year 5 PV (M)1,133,159.151,190,752.861,250,664.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,395,402.7236,143,576.1737,962,119.73
Equity Value (M)40,465,290.9142,393,187.8844,396,178.16
Shares Outstanding (M)60,948.3060,948.3060,948.30
Fair Value$663.93$695.56$728.42
Upside / Downside62.73%70.48%78.54%

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