Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kehua Holdings Co., Ltd. (603161.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.16 - $95.62$89.61
Multi-Stage$56.23 - $61.71$58.92
Blended Fair Value$74.26
Current Price$13.21
Upside462.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.46%12.56%0.470.360.450.620.410.650.170.080.060.17
YoY Growth--27.92%-18.74%-28.10%52.07%-37.00%289.45%113.44%28.46%-64.53%20.39%
Dividend Yield--3.97%3.40%4.09%7.13%3.34%7.33%1.36%0.45%0.36%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4411.536.92
Cash Retained (M)71.9271.9271.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.44-11.53-6.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.4760.3965.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.81191.81191.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.16$89.61$95.62
Upside / Downside514.37%578.34%623.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.2298.22104.60111.40118.64126.35130.14
Payout Ratio22.02%35.61%49.21%62.81%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3034.9851.4769.9790.65113.72120.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.0134.3334.65
Year 2 PV (M)48.6649.5950.52
Year 3 PV (M)64.3066.1568.03
Year 4 PV (M)81.0084.1187.32
Year 5 PV (M)98.80103.57108.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,458.6610,963.8211,488.31
Equity Value (M)10,785.4311,301.5711,837.35
Shares Outstanding (M)191.81191.81191.81
Fair Value$56.23$58.92$61.71
Upside / Downside325.66%346.03%367.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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