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Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. (601166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.44 - $121.82$83.35
Multi-Stage$76.56 - $83.86$80.14
Blended Fair Value$81.75
Current Price$19.85
Upside311.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.30%15.30%2.402.612.242.341.991.951.941.881.440.48
YoY Growth---8.09%16.61%-4.07%17.35%2.33%0.55%3.08%30.29%199.79%-16.96%
Dividend Yield--11.12%16.51%13.27%11.30%8.27%12.23%10.38%11.25%8.89%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77,282.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,938.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,344.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,456.409,660.255,796.15
Cash Retained (M)29,344.0029,344.0029,344.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,456.40-9,660.25-5,796.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,887.6019,683.7523,547.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,597.8022,597.8022,597.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.871.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.871.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$59.44$83.35$121.82
Upside / Downside199.46%319.92%513.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77,282.0079,835.7982,473.9785,199.3388,014.7490,923.2093,650.89
Payout Ratio62.03%67.62%73.22%78.81%84.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,938.0053,988.1360,385.7767,147.2874,289.7281,830.8886,627.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)49,961.6450,450.0050,938.36
Year 2 PV (M)51,714.3852,730.3153,756.12
Year 3 PV (M)53,216.1554,791.9756,398.60
Year 4 PV (M)54,485.6456,647.4158,872.88
Year 5 PV (M)55,540.3858,308.4361,185.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,465,073.621,538,090.751,613,990.55
Equity Value (M)1,729,991.801,811,018.881,895,142.28
Shares Outstanding (M)22,597.8022,597.8022,597.80
Fair Value$76.56$80.14$83.86
Upside / Downside285.67%303.73%322.49%

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