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China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Limited (3320.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.14 - $221.68$70.85
Multi-Stage$30.85 - $33.81$32.30
Blended Fair Value$51.58
Current Price$5.12
Upside907.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.59%0.00%0.260.150.150.120.110.130.100.080.000.00
YoY Growth--66.76%2.73%25.00%9.09%-15.41%34.56%28.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.51%3.00%2.37%3.38%2.76%1.80%0.95%0.74%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,099.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,552.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,546.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,419.81887.38532.43
Cash Retained (M)4,546.644,546.644,546.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,419.81-887.38-532.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,126.823,659.254,014.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,282.516,282.516,282.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$38.14$70.85$221.68
Upside / Downside644.96%1,283.82%4,229.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,099.077,457.197,833.398,228.558,643.669,079.709,352.09
Payout Ratio35.95%46.76%57.57%68.38%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,552.433,487.254,509.895,626.836,844.998,171.738,650.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)3,242.923,274.093,305.26
Year 2 PV (M)3,900.073,975.404,051.45
Year 3 PV (M)4,525.054,656.784,791.05
Year 4 PV (M)5,119.005,318.665,524.10
Year 5 PV (M)5,683.035,961.436,250.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)171,371.83179,767.16188,488.34
Equity Value (M)193,841.91202,953.53212,410.84
Shares Outstanding (M)6,282.516,282.516,282.51
Fair Value$30.85$32.30$33.81
Upside / Downside502.62%530.95%560.35%

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