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MTR Corporation Limited (0066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.20 - $184.12$119.91
Multi-Stage$116.49 - $127.66$121.97
Blended Fair Value$120.94
Current Price$28.20
Upside328.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.63%4.86%1.281.221.381.151.091.070.212.472.980.92
YoY Growth--4.62%-11.29%19.50%5.24%2.39%419.05%-91.66%-17.02%221.99%16.26%
Dividend Yield--4.72%4.09%3.33%2.75%2.53%2.32%0.50%5.39%7.90%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,111.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,082.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,029.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,422.203,388.882,033.33
Cash Retained (M)6,029.006,029.006,029.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,422.20-3,388.88-2,033.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)606.802,640.133,995.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,218.006,218.006,218.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.420.64
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.420.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Fair Value$83.20$119.91$184.12
Upside / Downside195.04%325.20%552.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,111.0027,951.2728,817.5829,710.7330,631.5831,580.9632,528.39
Payout Ratio77.76%80.21%82.66%85.10%87.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,082.0022,419.5523,819.7725,285.2426,818.6728,422.8630,088.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Year 1 PV (M)20,870.6221,075.0421,279.45
Year 2 PV (M)20,642.1221,048.4621,458.75
Year 3 PV (M)20,398.2221,003.4821,620.59
Year 4 PV (M)20,140.5320,941.2621,765.62
Year 5 PV (M)19,870.5620,862.9021,894.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)622,405.21653,488.53685,801.49
Equity Value (M)724,327.27758,419.67793,820.41
Shares Outstanding (M)6,218.006,218.006,218.00
Fair Value$116.49$121.97$127.66
Upside / Downside313.08%332.52%352.71%

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