Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (002709.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.93 - $57.65$54.03
Multi-Stage$10.53 - $11.53$11.02
Blended Fair Value$32.52
Current Price$38.17
Upside-14.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.82%43.58%0.340.630.260.080.040.040.040.040.010.01
YoY Growth---44.96%137.47%250.46%97.09%-13.57%2.22%16.14%192.58%19.18%15.28%
Dividend Yield--1.85%2.70%0.63%0.16%0.16%0.77%0.73%0.43%0.14%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)566.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)315.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.2570.7842.47
Cash Retained (M)315.52315.52315.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.25-70.78-42.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.27244.74273.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.391,953.391,953.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate5.86%5.86%5.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.93$54.03$57.65
Upside / Downside28.19%41.54%51.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)566.24603.05642.24683.99728.45775.80799.07
Payout Ratio44.28%53.42%62.57%71.71%80.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.72322.16401.83490.50588.99698.22739.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.86%5.86%5.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)301.48304.34307.19
Year 2 PV (M)351.89358.59365.36
Year 3 PV (M)401.96413.50425.25
Year 4 PV (M)451.68469.05486.92
Year 5 PV (M)501.06525.27550.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,561.4419,457.9620,388.80
Equity Value (M)20,569.5121,528.7022,523.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.391,953.391,953.39
Fair Value$10.53$11.02$11.53
Upside / Downside-72.41%-71.13%-69.79%

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