Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.43 - $224.60$184.99
Multi-Stage$206.81 - $226.87$216.65
Blended Fair Value$200.82
Current Price$181.63
Upside10.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.31%6.36%3.403.222.992.802.7310.602.592.382.212.04
YoY Growth--5.89%7.62%6.56%2.71%-74.24%309.54%8.64%7.96%8.36%10.75%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.40%2.33%1.88%2.11%11.70%2.25%2.02%2.45%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)631.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)502.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.3878.9947.39
Cash Retained (M)502.60502.60502.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.38-78.99-47.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.22423.61455.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.4536.4536.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.3211.6212.49
LTM Dividend per Share3.553.553.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.3211.6212.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.8715.1716.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate0.07%1.07%2.07%
Fair Value$149.43$184.99$224.60
Upside / Downside-17.73%1.85%23.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)631.90638.63645.43652.31659.25666.28686.27
Payout Ratio20.46%34.37%48.28%62.18%76.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.30219.50311.60405.64501.64599.65634.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate0.07%1.07%2.07%
Year 1 PV (M)198.74200.72202.71
Year 2 PV (M)255.45260.58265.76
Year 3 PV (M)301.09310.21319.51
Year 4 PV (M)337.14350.82364.91
Year 5 PV (M)364.89383.49402.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,081.056,391.046,713.54
Equity Value (M)7,538.367,896.868,269.28
Shares Outstanding (M)36.4536.4536.45
Fair Value$206.81$216.65$226.87
Upside / Downside13.87%19.28%24.91%

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