Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.14 - $29.58$25.35
Multi-Stage$49.80 - $54.70$52.20
Blended Fair Value$38.77
Current Price$90.23
Upside-57.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-15.65%-3.97%3.393.353.162.992.997.952.612.241.831.89
YoY Growth--1.27%5.98%5.58%0.05%-62.33%204.83%16.17%22.71%-3.37%-62.78%
Dividend Yield--3.76%3.90%3.20%3.50%3.68%9.14%3.55%2.53%2.02%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)189.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.8724.9214.95
Cash Retained (M)9.689.689.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.87-24.92-14.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-30.19-15.24-5.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.8955.8955.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.54-0.27-0.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.54-0.27-0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.123.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-5.10%-4.10%-3.10%
Fair Value$21.14$25.35$29.58
Upside / Downside-76.57%-71.91%-67.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.33191.15183.31175.79168.57161.66166.51
Payout Ratio95.14%94.12%93.09%92.06%91.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)189.65179.90170.64161.83153.45145.49154.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-5.10%-4.10%-3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)165.29167.04168.78
Year 2 PV (M)144.05147.10150.18
Year 3 PV (M)125.52129.53133.62
Year 4 PV (M)109.36114.04118.87
Year 5 PV (M)95.27100.39105.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,144.242,259.622,379.92
Equity Value (M)2,783.722,917.713,057.11
Shares Outstanding (M)55.8955.8955.89
Fair Value$49.80$52.20$54.70
Upside / Downside-44.80%-42.15%-39.38%

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