Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Baskent Dogalgaz Dagitim Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (BASGZ.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.65 - $266.82$166.12
Multi-Stage$83.80 - $91.32$87.49
Blended Fair Value$126.81
Current Price$38.32
Upside230.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS37.04%0.00%3.352.141.240.320.800.691.040.460.000.00
YoY Growth--56.62%72.32%282.98%-59.44%15.27%-33.40%127.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.38%11.64%9.65%2.35%8.26%7.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,717.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,400.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,317.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)743.54464.72278.83
Cash Retained (M)1,317.551,317.551,317.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-743.54-464.72-278.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)574.00852.831,038.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)700.00700.00700.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.221.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.433.433.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.221.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.654.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.65$166.12$266.82
Upside / Downside193.96%333.51%596.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,717.723,959.374,216.734,490.824,782.725,093.605,246.41
Payout Ratio64.56%69.65%74.74%79.82%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,400.172,757.633,151.423,584.764,061.114,584.244,852.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,495.212,518.862,542.51
Year 2 PV (M)2,580.172,629.322,678.93
Year 3 PV (M)2,655.662,731.892,809.57
Year 4 PV (M)2,722.252,826.942,934.62
Year 5 PV (M)2,780.492,914.793,054.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,428.7347,622.9549,901.15
Equity Value (M)58,662.5161,244.7663,921.02
Shares Outstanding (M)700.00700.00700.00
Fair Value$83.80$87.49$91.32
Upside / Downside118.69%128.32%138.30%

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