Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

JiaXing Gas Group Co., Ltd. (9908.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.71 - $115.64$72.88
Multi-Stage$87.21 - $95.87$91.46
Blended Fair Value$82.17
Current Price$7.11
Upside1,055.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS3.39%0.00%0.600.400.150.370.000.510.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%166.66%-59.46%0.00%-100.00%600.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.40%5.74%2.00%3.79%0.00%5.15%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.5242.8325.70
Cash Retained (M)202.35202.35202.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.52-42.83-25.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.83159.53176.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.84137.84137.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.161.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.161.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.172.30
WACC / Discount Rate5.45%5.45%5.45%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Fair Value$49.71$72.88$115.64
Upside / Downside599.18%925.01%1,526.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.61350.81359.20367.79376.59385.60397.17
Payout Ratio40.94%50.75%60.56%70.38%80.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.26178.04217.54258.83301.98347.04367.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.45%5.45%5.45%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)167.19168.84170.49
Year 2 PV (M)191.84195.64199.48
Year 3 PV (M)214.35220.75227.28
Year 4 PV (M)234.84244.24253.93
Year 5 PV (M)253.44266.19279.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,959.8211,511.0612,084.25
Equity Value (M)12,021.4812,606.7213,214.87
Shares Outstanding (M)137.84137.84137.84
Fair Value$87.21$91.46$95.87
Upside / Downside1,126.59%1,186.30%1,248.35%

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