Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sunshine Insurance Group Company Limited (6963.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.99 - $8.63$7.27
Multi-Stage$9.94 - $10.91$10.41
Blended Fair Value$8.84
Current Price$2.96
Upside198.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS20.38%0.00%0.170.180.150.130.030.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.23%18.56%12.89%286.96%-48.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.52%4.47%3.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,681.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,064.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,936.201,210.13726.08
Cash Retained (M)5,617.005,617.005,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,936.20-1,210.13-726.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,680.804,406.884,890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.99$7.27$8.63
Upside / Downside102.24%145.75%191.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,681.009,584.199,488.359,393.469,299.539,206.539,482.73
Payout Ratio41.98%51.58%61.19%70.79%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,064.004,943.845,805.686,649.797,476.438,285.888,771.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,488.864,534.674,580.47
Year 2 PV (M)4,786.264,884.444,983.61
Year 3 PV (M)4,977.635,131.575,288.65
Year 4 PV (M)5,081.375,291.975,509.05
Year 5 PV (M)5,113.255,379.515,656.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,867.1894,546.7899,419.31
Equity Value (M)114,314.57119,768.94125,437.84
Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
Fair Value$9.94$10.41$10.91
Upside / Downside235.77%251.79%268.44%

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