Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.08 - $621.49$330.64
Multi-Stage$137.17 - $149.99$143.46
Blended Fair Value$237.05
Current Price$167.46
Upside41.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.96%6.02%1.111.081.050.990.960.960.950.880.780.70
YoY Growth--2.87%2.98%5.47%3.02%0.51%0.77%7.87%13.05%11.44%13.25%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.54%0.95%0.91%0.93%1.55%1.60%1.53%1.81%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.8743.0425.82
Cash Retained (M)296.96296.96296.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.87-43.04-25.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)228.10253.92271.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.9541.9541.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.446.056.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.446.056.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.577.187.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$209.08$330.64$621.49
Upside / Downside24.85%97.44%271.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.33366.71390.54415.93442.97471.76485.91
Payout Ratio13.76%29.00%44.25%59.50%74.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.36106.36172.83247.49331.12424.58449.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)96.8397.7598.66
Year 2 PV (M)143.24145.97148.72
Year 3 PV (M)186.73192.09197.55
Year 4 PV (M)227.44236.19245.19
Year 5 PV (M)265.50278.33291.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,834.965,068.495,310.96
Equity Value (M)5,754.706,018.816,292.72
Shares Outstanding (M)41.9541.9541.95
Fair Value$137.17$143.46$149.99
Upside / Downside-18.09%-14.33%-10.43%

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