Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ryder System, Inc. (R)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$647.80 - $2,313.39$2,103.95
Multi-Stage$440.50 - $483.25$461.47
Blended Fair Value$1,282.71
Current Price$188.64
Upside579.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.00%6.07%3.173.012.892.872.802.742.632.252.141.95
YoY Growth--5.47%4.07%0.82%2.49%2.20%4.12%16.75%5.24%9.43%11.13%
Dividend Yield--2.20%2.50%3.24%3.61%3.70%10.34%4.12%3.09%2.83%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)142.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.4062.7537.65
Cash Retained (M)360.00360.00360.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.40-62.75-37.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.60297.25322.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.5842.5842.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.106.987.57
LTM Dividend per Share3.333.333.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.106.987.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4310.3210.90
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Fair Value$647.80$2,103.95$2,313.39
Upside / Downside243.41%1,015.33%1,126.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)502.00527.46554.22582.33611.87642.90662.19
Payout Ratio28.29%40.63%52.97%65.31%77.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)142.00214.31293.58380.35475.16578.61612.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Year 1 PV (M)201.03202.96204.90
Year 2 PV (M)258.34263.33268.37
Year 3 PV (M)313.97323.10332.42
Year 4 PV (M)367.94382.29397.05
Year 5 PV (M)420.30440.89462.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,195.8418,038.0218,912.88
Equity Value (M)18,757.4319,650.5920,577.88
Shares Outstanding (M)42.5842.5842.58
Fair Value$440.50$461.47$483.25
Upside / Downside133.51%144.63%156.18%

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