Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PGG Wrightson Limited (PGW.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.08 - $1.51$1.29
Multi-Stage$2.52 - $2.77$2.64
Blended Fair Value$1.97
Current Price$2.09
Upside-5.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-31.47%-26.67%0.030.100.290.310.120.170.220.390.390.38
YoY Growth---75.54%-64.25%-6.94%149.72%-25.64%-23.65%-43.89%0.32%1.48%-31.79%
Dividend Yield--1.20%5.81%7.03%7.06%3.64%6.16%4.11%5.89%6.68%9.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.751.721.03
Cash Retained (M)4.074.074.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.75-1.72-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.322.353.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.4875.4875.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate-5.23%-4.23%-3.23%
Fair Value$1.08$1.29$1.51
Upside / Downside-48.52%-38.29%-27.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.7313.1512.5912.0611.5511.0611.39
Payout Ratio70.38%74.31%78.23%82.15%86.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.669.779.859.919.949.9510.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate-5.23%-4.23%-3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)8.999.089.18
Year 2 PV (M)8.338.518.69
Year 3 PV (M)7.717.968.21
Year 4 PV (M)7.117.427.73
Year 5 PV (M)6.556.917.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)151.31159.46167.96
Equity Value (M)190.00199.33209.04
Shares Outstanding (M)75.4875.4875.48
Fair Value$2.52$2.64$2.77
Upside / Downside20.43%26.35%32.50%

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