Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.58 - $35.61$29.94
Multi-Stage$41.94 - $46.02$43.94
Blended Fair Value$36.94
Current Price$91.43
Upside-59.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%1.521.351.170.990.650.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.43%15.91%18.32%51.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.37%1.38%1.28%0.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,347.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)639.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)708.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.40168.38101.03
Cash Retained (M)708.00708.00708.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.40-168.38-101.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)438.60539.63606.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)398.40398.40398.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.351.52
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.351.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.702.963.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.58$29.94$35.61
Upside / Downside-73.12%-67.26%-61.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,347.001,333.531,320.191,306.991,293.921,280.981,319.41
Payout Ratio47.44%55.95%64.46%72.98%81.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)639.00746.12851.04953.781,054.391,152.891,220.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)678.95685.88692.81
Year 2 PV (M)704.70719.16733.76
Year 3 PV (M)718.67740.90763.58
Year 4 PV (M)722.95752.92783.80
Year 5 PV (M)719.32756.78795.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,166.0613,851.6414,565.50
Equity Value (M)16,710.6517,507.2718,335.22
Shares Outstanding (M)398.40398.40398.40
Fair Value$41.94$43.94$46.02
Upside / Downside-54.12%-51.94%-49.66%

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