Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.87 - $53.52$42.85
Multi-Stage$56.89 - $62.25$59.52
Blended Fair Value$51.18
Current Price$42.47
Upside20.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.78%3.74%1.091.102.324.081.002.162.000.800.780.77
YoY Growth---1.31%-52.48%-43.12%307.52%-53.57%8.00%150.91%2.58%1.31%1.59%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.58%9.29%15.77%4.58%14.14%9.40%3.71%3.79%4.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)834.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)776.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.80104.2562.55
Cash Retained (M)57.3057.3057.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.80-104.25-62.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-109.50-46.95-5.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.79249.79249.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.19-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.19-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Fair Value$33.87$42.85$53.52
Upside / Downside-20.25%0.89%26.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)834.00842.23850.53858.92867.40875.95902.23
Payout Ratio93.13%92.50%91.88%91.25%90.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)776.70779.09781.45783.78786.09788.36834.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)715.09722.24729.39
Year 2 PV (M)658.33671.56684.93
Year 3 PV (M)606.05624.41643.15
Year 4 PV (M)557.89580.55603.89
Year 5 PV (M)513.54539.74567.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,158.8411,728.1312,320.42
Equity Value (M)14,209.7314,866.6315,548.77
Shares Outstanding (M)249.79249.79249.79
Fair Value$56.89$59.52$62.25
Upside / Downside33.95%40.14%46.57%

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