Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.38 - $75.30$41.24
Multi-Stage$19.37 - $21.12$20.23
Blended Fair Value$30.73
Current Price$49.04
Upside-37.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.37%11.66%0.780.880.620.560.700.430.380.320.300.28
YoY Growth---12.15%42.95%10.50%-19.88%61.13%12.83%19.72%6.49%5.96%10.29%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.31%2.29%1.88%2.78%2.77%2.34%2.35%2.34%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,226.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.32153.3392.00
Cash Retained (M)251.50251.50251.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.32-153.33-92.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1898.18159.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$26.38$41.24$75.30
Upside / Downside-46.21%-15.92%53.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,226.601,303.761,385.761,472.931,565.581,664.061,713.98
Payout Ratio79.50%81.60%83.70%85.80%87.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.101,063.821,159.851,263.751,376.131,497.651,585.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)969.51978.72987.92
Year 2 PV (M)963.31981.691,000.25
Year 3 PV (M)956.55984.061,012.10
Year 4 PV (M)949.26985.841,023.47
Year 5 PV (M)941.49987.061,034.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,497.9318,344.8019,224.15
Equity Value (M)22,278.0523,262.1724,282.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
Fair Value$19.37$20.23$21.12
Upside / Downside-60.50%-58.75%-56.94%

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