Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.94 - $56.88$46.92
Multi-Stage$72.69 - $80.04$76.29
Blended Fair Value$61.61
Current Price$59.70
Upside3.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.760.710.580.480.160.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.06%21.81%22.06%202.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.23%1.27%1.04%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,982.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)739.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,243.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)796.40497.75298.65
Cash Retained (M)3,243.003,243.003,243.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-796.40-497.75-298.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,446.602,745.252,944.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)876.65876.65876.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.793.133.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.793.133.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.633.974.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.39%7.39%7.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$37.94$46.92$56.88
Upside / Downside-36.45%-21.41%-4.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,982.003,942.183,902.763,863.733,825.093,786.843,900.45
Payout Ratio18.56%32.85%47.14%61.42%75.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)739.001,294.881,839.572,373.232,896.043,408.163,607.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.39%7.39%7.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,193.641,205.821,218.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,563.151,595.221,627.60
Year 3 PV (M)1,858.951,916.441,975.10
Year 4 PV (M)2,091.102,177.772,267.10
Year 5 PV (M)2,268.472,386.592,509.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,749.7657,600.7160,569.20
Equity Value (M)63,725.0766,882.5470,166.59
Shares Outstanding (M)876.65876.65876.65
Fair Value$72.69$76.29$80.04
Upside / Downside21.76%27.79%34.07%

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