Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.06 - $568.70$191.98
Multi-Stage$58.85 - $64.33$61.54
Blended Fair Value$126.76
Current Price$28.91
Upside338.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.77%11.06%0.980.991.000.950.880.810.700.570.470.41
YoY Growth---0.58%-1.47%5.19%8.40%7.72%16.14%22.96%21.96%14.91%18.58%
Dividend Yield--3.51%5.09%5.81%3.81%3.27%4.63%2.84%2.14%1.70%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.964.972.98
Cash Retained (M)26.0026.0026.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.96-4.97-2.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0421.0223.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.9213.9213.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.511.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.511.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.502.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.06$191.98$568.70
Upside / Downside249.58%564.05%1,867.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.8042.3845.1448.0751.2054.5356.16
Payout Ratio34.68%45.74%56.81%67.87%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.8019.3925.6432.6340.4149.0751.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17.8017.9718.14
Year 2 PV (M)21.6222.0322.45
Year 3 PV (M)25.2625.9826.72
Year 4 PV (M)28.7229.8330.96
Year 5 PV (M)32.0233.5735.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)693.56727.06761.84
Equity Value (M)818.99856.44895.29
Shares Outstanding (M)13.9213.9213.92
Fair Value$58.85$61.54$64.33
Upside / Downside103.55%112.86%122.52%

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