Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (BA-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.54 - $36.22$27.19
Multi-Stage$52.50 - $57.75$55.08
Blended Fair Value$41.13
Current Price$12.20
Upside237.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.56%0.00%1.100.500.000.000.100.080.300.500.700.45
YoY Growth--120.21%13,468,478.57%-7.65%-100.00%23.42%-73.84%-40.00%-28.57%55.56%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.98%3.06%0.00%0.00%1.14%1.95%2.52%3.47%3.45%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,278.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,729.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)655.78409.86245.92
Cash Retained (M)549.84549.84549.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-655.78-409.86-245.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-105.94139.98303.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.002,100.002,100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.44
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$20.54$27.19$36.22
Upside / Downside68.36%122.90%196.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,278.893,289.603,300.353,311.133,321.943,332.793,432.78
Payout Ratio83.23%84.58%85.94%87.29%88.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,729.052,782.502,836.272,890.362,944.782,999.513,175.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)2,614.452,640.772,667.09
Year 2 PV (M)2,504.022,554.692,605.88
Year 3 PV (M)2,397.662,470.812,545.43
Year 4 PV (M)2,295.262,389.102,485.79
Year 5 PV (M)2,196.732,309.562,426.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,248.16103,294.46108,546.02
Equity Value (M)110,256.28115,659.40121,277.19
Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.002,100.002,100.00
Fair Value$52.50$55.08$57.75
Upside / Downside330.35%351.44%373.37%

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