Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Asia Network International Public Company Limited (ANI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.34 - $3.37$2.84
Multi-Stage$4.17 - $4.56$4.36
Blended Fair Value$3.60
Current Price$3.44
Upside4.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.450.140.060.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.85%232.07%118.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.33%9.44%2.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)604.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)570.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.0075.6245.37
Cash Retained (M)34.7034.7034.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.00-75.62-45.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)-86.29-40.92-10.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,847.951,847.951,847.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.34$2.84$3.37
Upside / Downside-32.08%-17.44%-2.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)604.98598.93592.94587.01581.14575.33592.59
Payout Ratio94.26%93.41%92.56%91.71%90.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)570.28559.47548.82538.32527.98517.80548.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)508.16513.34518.53
Year 2 PV (M)452.77462.05471.44
Year 3 PV (M)403.38415.85428.58
Year 4 PV (M)359.35374.24389.59
Year 5 PV (M)320.10336.76354.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,661.825,956.646,263.62
Equity Value (M)7,705.578,058.908,425.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,847.951,847.951,847.95
Fair Value$4.17$4.36$4.56
Upside / Downside21.22%26.77%32.55%

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