Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Herige (ALHRG.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.17 - $657.96$219.89
Multi-Stage$126.06 - $138.05$131.95
Blended Fair Value$175.92
Current Price$22.00
Upside699.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.48%5.32%1.881.771.771.220.000.740.490.490.000.34
YoY Growth--5.99%0.08%45.08%0.00%-100.00%50.67%0.71%0.00%-100.00%-69.60%
Dividend Yield--7.93%5.37%5.44%2.68%0.00%2.49%2.09%1.20%0.00%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.151.340.81
Cash Retained (M)0.260.260.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.15-1.34-0.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.89-1.08-0.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.872.872.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.38-0.19
LTM Dividend per Share3.653.653.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.38-0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.46
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate3.32%4.32%5.32%
Fair Value$121.17$219.89$657.96
Upside / Downside450.77%899.52%2,890.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.7511.2211.7012.2112.7313.2813.68
Payout Ratio97.55%96.04%94.53%93.02%91.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4910.7711.0611.3511.6511.9612.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate3.32%4.32%5.32%
Year 1 PV (M)10.0810.1710.27
Year 2 PV (M)9.689.8710.06
Year 3 PV (M)9.309.579.85
Year 4 PV (M)8.929.279.63
Year 5 PV (M)8.568.999.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)315.42330.98347.15
Equity Value (M)361.96378.85396.39
Shares Outstanding (M)2.872.872.87
Fair Value$126.06$131.95$138.05
Upside / Downside473.01%499.75%527.52%

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