Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited (603062.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.96 - $106.04$67.18
Multi-Stage$34.92 - $38.02$36.44
Blended Fair Value$51.81
Current Price$55.27
Upside-6.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS81.23%0.00%1.901.251.411.280.130.100.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--52.17%-11.70%10.41%857.82%37.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.77%2.86%2.43%2.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)236.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.2529.5317.72
Cash Retained (M)60.7860.7860.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.25-29.53-17.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.5331.2543.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.15106.15106.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.290.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.290.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.952.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.96$67.18$106.04
Upside / Downside-16.85%21.55%91.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)236.24251.60267.95285.37303.92323.67333.38
Payout Ratio74.27%77.42%80.56%83.71%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.46194.78215.87238.88263.96291.30308.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)176.07177.74179.41
Year 2 PV (M)176.39179.75183.14
Year 3 PV (M)176.44181.51186.67
Year 4 PV (M)176.25183.02190.00
Year 5 PV (M)175.82184.31193.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,825.642,962.123,103.82
Equity Value (M)3,706.613,868.454,036.16
Shares Outstanding (M)106.15106.15106.15
Fair Value$34.92$36.44$38.02
Upside / Downside-36.82%-34.07%-31.21%

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