Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD. (600269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.48 - $13.91$10.90
Multi-Stage$11.29 - $12.38$11.83
Blended Fair Value$11.36
Current Price$4.85
Upside134.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.59%-1.18%0.300.290.310.410.420.420.470.440.440.43
YoY Growth--0.71%-3.37%-25.45%-3.52%1.61%-11.51%7.27%-0.87%3.44%28.33%
Dividend Yield--5.78%6.47%9.00%11.34%11.85%12.03%10.17%9.14%8.16%8.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,755.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)539.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,215.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)351.11219.44131.67
Cash Retained (M)1,215.751,215.751,215.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-351.11-219.44-131.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)864.64996.311,084.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$8.48$10.90$13.91
Upside / Downside74.92%124.75%186.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,755.541,796.001,837.391,879.741,923.061,967.382,026.40
Payout Ratio30.75%42.60%54.45%66.30%78.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)539.79765.061,000.441,246.251,502.861,770.641,874.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)698.69705.59712.49
Year 2 PV (M)834.39850.94867.66
Year 3 PV (M)949.23977.621,006.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,045.381,087.271,130.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,124.801,181.421,240.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,932.8723,036.9824,185.10
Equity Value (M)26,585.3627,839.8229,142.53
Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
Fair Value$11.29$11.83$12.38
Upside / Downside132.85%143.84%155.25%

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